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Post by abisai on Apr 4, 2005 0:59:35 GMT -5
Rob, your avatar is the gayest thing I have ever seen. Ever. In other news, if there is not enough fantasy baseball for you, feel free to check me out as the Offbeat Drummers in a public fantasy league at baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/255556
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Post by Rob G on Apr 4, 2005 9:23:16 GMT -5
My Avatar is great. What are you talking about.
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Post by Rob G on Apr 4, 2005 17:04:19 GMT -5
Oh ok sorry,
Booth has informed me that at the time of your post my avatar was David Hasslehoff. You see what i do is i still other peoples really cool avatars from other websites. Its great but when they change their avatar mine changes too. I kindof like it though.
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Post by Rob G on May 3, 2005 15:04:27 GMT -5
Fantasy Basebal YEAHHHHHHHHHHHH
Well it seems we are off to another year of DKB dominance. Brian Roberts, what the hell is that. I checked this guys career stats and there is nothing to indicate that he would ever do a thing. Mind you hes like top best player in baseball right now. I demand to know how this done. I really thought me or Booth would have a shot this year but countelss injuries have rendered me less then dominante, Still injuries or no DKB is Destroying evcerything. There are no pretentions this year. Its his league and we are just observers. Still I am holding out for the big injuries. Brian Roberts dies in head to head car crash with Johan the minnesota pitcher dude. Ha ha.
Anyhow my reason for posting was just to remind my fellow players of somethings I suspect they may have forgotten.
1)First supplemental draft is June 1st. Thats less then a month from now. We will have to pick a new player. BE PREPARED TO PICK OR LOSE YOUR PICK
2)Trades dont mean shit until Dave Buckley says its done. As i understand it, for best results you should have a 3rd party witness to the trade agreement then both parties in trade should contact the COmmish individuallly.
3)For a player to be eligible for a position he must have played 20 games at that position. Yahoo website uses a different set of rules for this. So just cause you can swithc them on Yahoo does not mean that its legal.
4)Yahoo numbers dont mean shit. No really the scores presented there are totally misleading and mean totally nothing. Its possible that in the real league Mark Booth might actually be the leader right now. Just cause it looks like your team is dozens of points behind the next guy dont be alarmed. In reality we are all probably preatty close right now.
DID I MISS ANYTHING BUCK
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Post by abisai on May 4, 2005 14:06:35 GMT -5
I accept all accolades ;D Just so long as people are fine with me winning I will not feel so bad about it. One of these days someone is going to make me buy them a trophy....
I did want to add that I will be doing an official stat update towards the end of this month, so that people can have an idea of how the stats are going. Not that these are reliable stats. Every year someone emerges with early dominance only to fall into utter dismay somewhere along the line. Injuries are our worst enemy.
Regarding Rob's points: 1. Yes, you will lose the chance to make a pick if you cannot have one ready for that day. 2. I keep stats outside and apart from Yahoo. Yahoo is a side gig to use as a tool. Please submit trades through me, affirmed by both parties. 3&4. Yahoo means almost nothing and works entirely differently.
I will submit e-mails for friendly updates and reminders closer to the time that we should be making picks. June 1st is the draft day. I have no clue as of today what the true situation is, since the Yahoo site has rules and stats not relavent to our league. The moral here is that nothing is close to settled yet and everyone is definitely in this thing. Please approach the draft rounds and trades with this mindset.
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Post by abisai on May 9, 2005 8:45:58 GMT -5
On Sunday, every player I had batting got at least one hit... except for none other than Brian Roberts. And none of my pitchers pitched. Statistical Madness I say.
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Post by Rob G on May 11, 2005 21:34:11 GMT -5
Buck, Have you already done a stat update and not shown it to anyone because it is shamelessly dominated by you. I HATE YOU
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Post by abisai on May 12, 2005 9:18:27 GMT -5
It's too late to quit the league. You're only hope is that there is a season work stoppage before the all-star game.
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Post by abisai on May 23, 2005 20:27:05 GMT -5
Danny Graves is no longer going to be a Red. The team designated him for assignment, giving them 10 days to either trade him or release him to become a free agent. You would assume if they could have traded him they would have done so instead of doing this. It will be interesting to see where he lands. Dude is unpredictable and so is his fate. Devil Rays? Braves? He could go anywhere. Even... the METS!
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Post by abisai on May 31, 2005 10:50:00 GMT -5
A brief word on statistics.
At first glance there are 6 teams competing in ten categories. This looks at the situation like there are only 60 variables. Even so, there would be 7,200 different potential combinations of winners and losers. Underneath this level is the fact that each team's stats is a combination of variables across categories. Every team has 5 pitching stats, comprised of 7 variables (including IP, H, BB, ER, less ERA and WHIP), across 9 pitchers for 63 pitching variables. Every team has 14 batters, across 6 variables (including AB and Hits, less Avg) so that is 84 batting variables. The 60 league standings variables sway in rythym to the melody dictated by these 147 variables, producing one of 7,200 results. The key to the matter is that the variables interchange and flux like a living jigsaw puzzle that forms, dissembles, and reforms in rough patterns. The stat updates are merely pictures at a moment in time with the picture becoming more clear with the more games played. Obviously the earlier the season the more likely the picture is fuzzy and out of focus. Even so one could look through the clutter to discern patterns. That can be called statistical analysis but is more like gypsy palm reading for no one can predict the future performance - regardless of the past performance.
I bring all this up only to advise people to try and focus on simply bettering their team. Playing the numbers game is good if a person realizes the limitations of mid-season statistics in correlation to final season statistics. I evoke the legacy of Danny Graves as testiment to an extreme example in 2004. Haase held second place through July in 2002 and finished in fourth at the end. Rob was in fourth place late in 2003 and managed to climb to second. Trust me, it is really hard to take a stab at predicting what the final outcomes of stat categories will be based on preliminary stats accumulated. I have attempted this and for numerous reasons I strongly feel it is beyond the comprehension of man to feign this prognastication. Every change to a single player can either drastically effect the league standings or have absolutely no effect. The picture is far greater than the pieces.
This is not to dissuade anyone from paying attention to the numbers, only to affirm that the predictive value of statistical analysis in mid-season is limited to the point of irrelevance. Even as late as July or August the stats can volatilely alter in relation to one another and greatly affect the overall standings. It is a great thing to pay attention to what stats are important and what your team could do to advance within the categories. But it is not something that any formula could tell you, the fact is these things are ultimately decided on the field of play. The field of play is not statistically bound and varies greatly, which is why I love baseball. The difference in a $8 million/year salary and minor league salary is like an extra hit every 20 AB. (take 500 AB and compare 150 hits vs. 125 hits for 300 vs 250 avg). Our goal is to have trying to master the art of predicting who has a better chance of getting that 5% difference in performance. It is maddeningly simple and yet elusive as alchemical efforts to make gold from other elements.
Take stats for what they represent, for if you stare too long you could burn out some retina looking into the sunny madness underneath it all. I tread there often and enjoy working the numbers because that is just the kind of guy that I am. If a spreadsheet or formula were able to tell anyone how to win, we would simply get together a program and play one of the thousand dollar national leagues and win big-time. But this never works and surprising talent arises (Esteban Loiaza and Carl Pavano in 2004) and top talent falls repeatedly every year (Jason Giambi in NY, Ken Griffey in Cincinnati) or even within the year. I want people to realize that the hard number crunching I would create is an output for the league and not an input to my strategy. I hold no special advantages in that regard. This is why my stats are most complex in the off-season and rare in the season. I would advise people to do as I do and guess at what they need to advance within points, but would advise people that this is not even an inexact science but in fact nothing approaching science - just a guessing game. This is the fantasy that we enjoy and I would not run the league if all there was to it was a magically formula to rob my friends of $20. If I were even that smart I could make more than $20 off it, but as I said before no man is that smart and I don't think any man will ever be that smart ever.
THE COMMISH
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Post by abisai on May 31, 2005 16:23:49 GMT -5
There was a pre-draft trade: Rob traded John Smoltz, Ugueth Urbina, and his June draft pick to Pete for BJ Ryan, Keith Foulke, and Reggie Sanders.
June draft round: 1. Sylvester (from Gault): Derrick Turnbow, RP, Milwaukee Brewers 2. Sylvester: Dontrelle Willis, SP, Florida Marlins 3. Pultz: Brett Myers, SP, Philadelphia Phillies 4. Buckley: Milton Bradley, OUT, LA Dodgers 5. Booth: Cliff Barmes, SS, Colorado Rockies 6. Papo: Doug Davis, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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Post by abisai on Jun 8, 2005 14:18:32 GMT -5
Danny Graves is no longer going to be a Red. The team designated him for assignment, giving them 10 days to either trade him or release him to become a free agent. You would assume if they could have traded him they would have done so instead of doing this. It will be interesting to see where he lands. Dude is unpredictable and so is his fate. Devil Rays? Braves? He could go anywhere. Even... the METS! I am a freaking genius. Danny Graves is a Mets player. With his uniform came a selection of a crackrock, a bong, or a set of crutches. I think he took the middle road.
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Post by abisai on Jun 8, 2005 14:23:59 GMT -5
June draft round: 1. Sylvester (from Gault): Derrick Turnbow, RP, Milwaukee Brewers 2. Sylvester: Dontrelle Willis, SP, Florida Marlins 3. Pultz: Brett Myers, SP, Philadelphia Phillies 4. Buckley: Milton Bradley, OUT, LA Dodgers 5. Booth: Cliff Barmes, SS, Colorado Rockies 6. Papo: Doug Davis, SP, Milwaukee Brewers COMMISH REVIEW The only player that was a surprise to me was Doug Davis, I full expected a couple players to be higher on the radar screen than him. Two of these players are already on the DL: Barmes and Bradley. Barmes I figured would decrease in talent over the year, but to see him fall down carrying groceries and effectively be done for the year is amazing. Bradley I would have known was hurt if I looked that day, but did not. I still remember Cheese calling me a sucker and think him an asshole if he knew anything about this. Irregardless, there was only one player I thought would make any real impact among those chosen. Dontrelle Willis. This to me was the Dontrelle Willis draft round, with much behind the scenes work until the point of drafting. So, to me Pete won this draft round big time. It appears that me and Booth are the only real losers thought, with players injured already having their season totals altered.
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Post by abisai on Jun 16, 2005 14:13:33 GMT -5
Closers are dropping like crazy. Benitez is done. I read Dotel might be too. Now it is Gagne who poses to shut it down for the remainder of the season. Did these guys all get drunk together every day before gametime or something? Geez.
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Post by abisai on Jun 27, 2005 11:26:51 GMT -5
July draft round is coming up. It is reverse the order of the June draft round. Spread the word, it's about to go down. I have NO CLUE who will be drafted at this point.
Also, July 31st is the trade deadline.
Final rosters should be submitted to me in the week or two after the season ends. Please do so via e-mail (dkbuckley@msn.com) or let me know that you intend the Yahoo final lineup to be your final lineup.
THE COMMISH
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